Does will Trump be reelected?
I won’t here deliver a political analysis of the situation, but we have to distinguish two possible reactions of markets to the US federal election: a possible rise with the election of D.Trump or a possible fall with the election of J.Biden due to its economic propositions.
Of course, It depends of who will get the Senate or the House, but it seems to be the main reaction of the markets at this moment to the federal election.
A MODEL SIGNAL TO UNDERSTAND WHAT COULD HAPPEN…
As I explained in my provisional report, the Dow Jones cyclical indicator I developed tends to show a general positive reaction (with a 85% fiability) between the 3rd and the 13th of November 2020. We could analyze it like the potential winning position of Donald Trump. After this date, there could be turmoils due to the pandemic recovering.
Here is a supposition I wanted to share briefly. Once again, different scenarios can be assimilated to such a move but it remains the main possibility.
By Thomas Andrieu FOR ROCHEGRUP.